Thursday, October 16, 2008

VIX: All Time High Today

The VIX hit an intraday high today of 81.17, which is nearly DOUBLE the 40 to 50 spike levels over the past 20 years. That includes the dot.com bust and 9/11.

Lets hope that this was history today and that the 81.17 stays in the record books for the next 20 years.

Below is a monthly chart to let you see visually what an anomaly these levels are.

The big question moving forward is what kind of range we end up with for the next few months. Now a VIX of 40 looks like a walk in the park. Even in the dot.com bust the volatility was contained after a few months and levels then hung out in the 25 to 35 range for a while.

One thing that I learned from this entire volatility event was that VIX levels DO have a basement of about 10 since there will ALWAYS be some fear in the markets, but there is NO ceiling on VIX levels despite the low probabilities of going there.

The one thing we do see on the charts is that the spikes have always gave way to lower VIX levels over time, so now it's just a waiting game.

VIX 20 Year Monthly Chart:

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