Thursday, October 16, 2008

RVX: New Historical High...Again

The RVX hit and exceeded our 84 target and hit an intraday high of 87.14. The RVX formed a topping tail on the daily chart and closed at 75.68 (within a point of yesterday's close).

The topping tail at the 423.6% fib level is a sign that the move up at least paused today. We'll be looking for a close below today's candle to hint at the start of a pull back.

Historically the RVX and VIX "spike" at highs, form market bottoms and then rally until met with new levels of resistance. These last few weeks were very tricky as there was no historical precedence to think there were probabilities that we could reach an RVX level twice as high as a normal spike of 35 or 40.

We'll continue to watch the RVX and VIX levels to see if they'll start there decent back down to a lower range or if the economic crisis keeps us at these inflated volatility levels.

At some point the market will calm down again, but we are best to refrain from predicting when that calming event will occur. Keep your eyes on the RVX and VIX for some insight on the volatility.

RVX Daily Chart:

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