The markets experienced a relief bounce on Friday and Monday and today we saw the expected pull back. On the daily chart the price closed today just above the 50% mark of yesterday's candle, so despite the ugly intraday action the bulls still hung on via the daily charts. A close 55% below the top of yesterday's candle would of had much more of a bearish tone.
Notice that this mornings open pushed up to the 38% fib but then quickly slipped back down. On just about any move whether it's drastic or not, the probabilities of a 38% retracement are EXTREMELY high. Now we just have to see if the market is ready to march toward the higher Fib and MA targets above:
- 50% fib - 616
- 20 MA - 640
- 61.8 fib - 650
- 200 MA - 704
650 is the high target for now as it should act as both a magnet with the 20MA in that area and a brick wall with the 61.8% fib and multiple areas of old support (old support turns into new resistance).
The RVX (Russell 2000 Volatility Index) closed again at near record highs of 65.59 so the intraday mega-swings will likely continue for the rest of the week. Until we get some relatively "normal" levels below 35 it's going to be more suitable for intraday trade rather then swing trading.
RUT Daily Chart:
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
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