SPX: Sitting on the 1274 Fence

The SPX closed today today at 1267.38 which is on the downside of the imaginary 1274 fence created by the lows in January and March. The bulls had a much better argument that a sustainable rally was brewing yesterday when it closed above the fence then they did today closing below it. The price on the SPX daily chart is also under the 30MA again so chalk another one up for the bears.

How the market reacts to tomorrows economic numbers and more importantly how Friday closes will give us the next piece of our technical puzzle.

On the short term SPX daily chart we have a higher low and the market will need to close higher then 1285 to give it a higher high. It would be much better to see a close over 1290 to feel confident about the higher high.

Keep an eye on that 1290 area, because if it breaks out above that area, there is little to resist the bulls until 1315 to 1320. We may get another one of those quick intraday rallies that catches most off guard. The rally may come when it's least expected, so watch that 1290-1292 closely.

Bias is mixed now as we have conflicting technicals. On the bulls side we have a higher low, but on the bears side the price is under Jan / March lows and it's below the 30MA on the daily again. As a reminder, the intermidate trend is firmly down, and any bullish rally at this point is likely to build out a lower high on the weeklies.

SPX Daily Chart: