Monday, July 7, 2008

SPX: Banks Spanked Yet Again

If there's one thing I'm happy I've done this year, it's that I haven't tried to pick a bottom on the banks. Just when everyone thinks they can't go lower the hammer comes down again. Yikes! If I didn't know better I'd think our economy is going to collapse when looking at the bank charts.

We were at a similar danger point in March (not so far down, but ugly), when the Fed jumped in last time and did some fancy work to ward off panic selling. I'm wondering what they have up their sleeve this week?

We either get a bounce here, or we fall down -- be prepared for either scenario, you can make money either way. That's the good news about being a trader rather then an investor.

Be careful on going short too late as there will likely be the swift, out-of-blue reversal to the upside after the panic selling (if we see that).

NOTE: SPX closed at a 52 week low today... that is Bearish especially with the VIX at 25.78. I wouldn't expect a reversal until the VIX hits 30+.

SPX Weekly Chart:
Again I had to pull out to weekly chart to illustrate support levels.

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