Thursday, July 3, 2008

DOW: 20 Year Trend Broken

Looking at a 20 year chart we can see that the 20 year uptrend has been broken with last months close below the 30MA and upward trend on the monthly chart.

This is bearish on a longer term basis.

What is most important to me here is that price action has clearly broken an the uptrend and that trendbreaks from my experience have been very high probability indicators of where the price goes from there. In this case, the longer term bias would be down. Since this is a monthly chart, that could mean it could take a year or two to play out, but it's something I will certainly be watching.

Note: June saw the DOW close below the 30MA on the Monthly Chart for the first time since July 2003.

DOW 20 Year Monthly Chart:

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