Sunday, March 29, 2009

RUT: Still Watching the Hourly

The RUT did pull back to the 430 area on Friday and at the time of this posting the e-mini futures were down at 421.

On the hourly chart I also put up some fib levels to give us some pull back targets. The 23.6% is right at the 421 area so it may bounce here on Monday, if it continues to pull back then the 38.2% may support around 406, below that is the 50% at 394.

After 5 legs straight up I'm now preparing for a couple different scenarios.

Scenario One: Two legs down that would support on the 38.3% or 50% fib before moving back up to retest 430 area.

Scenario Two: One leg down and then a quick retest of the 435 area that would then form a Head and Shoulders Pattern (bearish pattern) which, if it confirmed, would have a downside target of about 385.

Scenario Three: One leg down that would support at 415 or higher and continue the move up to retest the 445 area and possibly form a double top.

Monday's close will give me the next puzzle pieces and I'll re-evaluate from there.

RUT Hourly Chart:

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