Wednesday, March 4, 2009

RUT: Peering Back to 2002 and 2003

Wow, had to bring up a 10 year chart just to find some support levels. Sad.

Today's price action was pretty weak despite the fact if close up a few points. It was certainly not the "short covering rally" the bulls were looking for and it fizzled the last half hour of the session. This left the daily chart looking drab.

I posted a weekly chart so you can see the next couple areas of support at 350 and 325.

We could certainly hold this area and bounce from here, but the charts may have more resolve and more of a reason to get a "sustained" bounce if they retest those 2002 and 2003 lows. For whatever reason, prices like to retest areas, and with the downward momentum AND being this close, we should not be surprised to see a retest of these areas.

Everyone may be on the lookout for a capitulation day coming up that would be created by some panic selling followed by a short covering rally. This may or may not happen, but this is the area it would likely happen. Trade well.

Trend is still down, but probably begging for another relief rally. It doesn't take very long at all for people to forget they're afraid and they let greed take over again. That's what makes our markets so wonderful to trade.


RUT Weekly Chart:


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