Thursday, June 12, 2008

SPX: Lots Going on with the Daily Chart

The SPX daily chart is packed full of info this week, so let me run down what I see from my perspective and see if you "concur."

First is that the SPX is trading back under the intermediate downward line that started with it's top Oct 07, so the intermediate downtrend is STILL intact.

On the the short term horizon it put in a lower high and has now formed a lower low, this is short term bearish so now the short term and intermediate trend are DOWN.

A rising wedge pattern formed and broke with a conservative downward target of 1330 and an aggressive target of 1280.

The price today closed between the 50% and 61.8% fib levels which is a limbo land of sorts. If it can stay above 1296 (61.8%) there is more of a chance of a bounce back to the upside. If it breaks below 1296 then the probabilities start to shift to a 100% retracement which would carry it down to 1260.

Today it formed an inverted hammer candle / harami which could signal the start of a short term reversal tomorrow. However, the harami is very weak as today's bar closed in the lower 1/3 of yesterday's candle so the bulls weren't very convincing.

I drew one last upward trendline today (Green) to give the SPX one last chance to stay above it and get bullish. We'll see if it has the mojo.

SPX Daily Chart: (with lots of lines)

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