On Friday we closed below an SPX upward trendline. On Monday we tried to get back above but closed definatively below. Today we closed below again. Whenever I see trend breaks like this and they can't get back above (look at the topping tail we had today as it attempted to go higher but couldn't hold it) and close lower then the previous day, it makes me very alert to a possible move to the downside. By no means am I saying that it will go lower, but because this is the second upward trend we've broken on the SPX in the last 14 days, it's telling us that the buying is weakening. Keep an eye on 1487 as a support level, and if we break below that our next MA support is at 1467. There's not a lot of horizontal support between 1487 and 1467, so that could be a wild ride down if we fall to those levels. With the Fed meeting on Wednesday and Thursday lets see if the bulls and bears can keep it range bound until the Thursday 2:00 announcement. Note too that the VIX closed at it's high today of 18.89 (a few cents shy of Feb 27th level) -- lots and lots of jitters out there. Be safe.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
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