I never used to think that the market can crash in an upward direction, but again I learned from yesterday afternoon and this morning that the market can actually crash up. From the move up at 2:00 yesterday to the peaks today the SPX gained 25 points and the NDX gained 34 points -- this entire move happened in 3 hours of trading. After the move up this morning we consolidated sideways the rest of the day and were pinned near the 1525 level on the SPX and the 1925 level on the NDX.
I won't even try to guess what might happen tomorrow as the market has been full of surprises lately. Typically I'm told that expiry Fridays are boring days, but if I recall last month there was a lot of movement... so be ready for anything!
Below is 20day 15m Chart of the SPX and the NDX showing the Wedge breakouts. This is a great low risk setup and where and entry could have been taken as soon as the first 15m bar printed above the downtrend line (Blue line). The stop would have been a 15m bar close below the top of the body on the signal candle (highlighted). A reasonable target would have been the resistance area of 1515, but the SPX decided to move even higher, so you might have some of your position still open on this one. Keep your eyes out for Wedges like this on both long term and short term charts as they usually make large, fast moves after they break. Work on your entry and exit rules and papertrade a few to see how you do. The longer it takes to form, the bigger the move. On the SPX, a move of 25 points would have been expected as we estimate by measuring the wide points on the Wedge from 1490 to 1515, giving us our 25 points. These are generally continuation patterns which in this case was for the intermediate trend up.
SPX 15m Chart
NDX 15m Chart
Thursday, June 14, 2007
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