Okay, from a pure technical standpoint I am very bearish on the RUT at this 750 level for 2 main reasons. Number one, 750 has been and is currently acting as strong resistance. Number two, (and this could be used as a bullish argument as well), it has gone up now for 6 straight weekly bars without a significant pull back and is becoming extremely overbought.
However, as a trader my opinion doesn't matter and it is not my "opinion" that pays the bills, it's the trades I put on based on the set ups I see in the price action.
At this point the current trend is up and a breakout above 750 could easily go to 800 over time even though it doesn't seem logical or possible in this questionable economy. Even though I still think it goes down from here, I have to be open to possibility that it can go up and trade the actual price action -- Not what I think will happen, but what is happening.
I've awarded the the RUT a green upward trendline on the daily chart which I will keep up there as long as it continues to close above it. When it closes below the green line I'll circle to break-point and we'll see how far it slides from there. I am giving the RUT the benefit of the doubt here in an exercise at keeping my mind open to any market movement no matter how much it doesn't make sense.
RUT Daily Chart: (With "NEW" Green Uptrend Line)
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
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The Russell 2000 will fall fast and hard now that the Dollar Rally has ended.
The chart of the Russell 2000, IWM, for the last three days, looks very much like the chart of the US Dollar, $USD, for the same period.
The 8/12/2008 Greg Michalowski USD JPY Chart shows a complete breakdown -- it shows the USD JPY is a "failed investment instrument".
Lacking liquidity from investing long via 0.5% interest loans from the Bank of Japan, disivenstment will be coming out of all stocks globally and especially the fianancial sector and dollar driven Russell 2000.
The yen carry traders will be selling the financial sector to take profit and the Russell 2000 shares will fall rapidly.
In addition to the Russell 2000 shares, these recent high flying consumer, value and financial ETFs will fall quickly as well: UYG, RKH, TKF, PJB, IXJ, XLF, URE, BBH, IIF, PBE, XHB, ICF, IHF, PXN, RWN, IFN, SMN.
Having passed through Peak Currencies and just now through Peak Dollar, wealth will be preserved by investing in gold and a limited amount of short selling.
Please consider beginning coverage on three following ETFs and ETNs ... DGP, SKF, FXP
DGP ... 200% gold -- it's oversold
SKF ... 200% inverse of the financial sector -- it's on its way up again
FXP ... 200% inverse of China -- it has left the launch pad, it is liekly going to fall lower in a correction any day, before it continues dramatically higher.
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