The China vs. FOMC Tug of War or Exit Door?

Tomorrow we are certain to have a fun filled trading day. With the Chinese Market down over 6% at the time of this post and the FOMC publishing their minutes at 2:00pm EST we have the makings of some great potential fireworks. So far futures are down 5.25 on the S&P so an open right now would put us at 1513 which is below the 15m uptrend we started at Friday's bottom. If we hold and close the first 15m bar above that trendline (the Green one), then we could see some more chop until the FOMC minutes. At that point beware of a knee-jerk one way or another. Once the direction is confirmed, have fun. If we open lower and can't close the first bar above the Green trend then we have some likely support levels below -- 1514 has some good horizontal support, 1511.50 is the 23.6% Fibonacci, 1510 has good horizontal support, 1505 was Friday's low, 1500 is parked on the Daily Chart 30MA and was support prior to our last short term uptrend. Not much below 1500 until we hit 1492.50 so be careful there. On the upside, if the market decides to blow off the negativity in the Chinese markets AND likes the FOMC minutes our targets to the upside are first 1522, then 1526 before retracing back up to the highs of 1532.50. Remember, we still haven't seen our record SPX close yet so it may fight to stay up in this territory until it does. Sorry for the exessive lines on the charts, but in a chopping market like this it's a necessity for me. (Note that today's close couldn't make it above the BLUE downtrend line...watch that one tomorrow too) I went with a wider view today so you could see some of the horizontal support levels on the way down. Last but maybe most important, remember that we are still in an Uptrend. Be careful if buying puts as the market continues to bounce back up very quickly after all of these pull backs.

SPX 15m Chart