RUT: Lower High, Lower Low = Down

The RUT resisted off the downtrending 20MA and has now formed a lower high to go with it's lower low. This confirms our bias for short term bearish.

Not much else to say, the chart does a much better job at showing what's happening.

440 support will be a critical area to hold next week.

RUT Daily Chart:

RUT: Testing the 20MA

The RUT got a boost today and closed up close to the now sideways 20MA on the daily chart. This may hold up as an area of resistance, but once it gets sideways the price is likely to chop around it for a while before another direction gets set. In store, more uncertainty.

The RUT chart now has a lower low, we just have to wait and see when this current rally rolls over to analyze the level of the next high.

RUT Daily Chart:

Volatility Revisited

Pulling out to the weekly charts, both the VIX and RVX are a bit higher this week, but not too bad considering the chaotic price movement the last few days. Looking at these charts it hints a bit in favor of the bulls.

We'll have to see if those topping tails on the weeklies actually work next week.

VIX Weekly Chart:



RVX Weekly Chart:

RUT: Dancing on the Neckline

The RUT is starting to create a head and shoulders pattern, but appears too weak so far to even create a right shoulder.

Looking at the weekly chart, bulls got excited about the bottoming tail created last week, but thus far it's been negated. Another down day tomorrow (Friday) could take it out completely. The rising wedge pattern continues to work, and a retest of the prior lows on the weekly near the 410 area becomes more of a probability.

RUT lost 460 support earlier this week, but lets see if it can hold on to 440. Without 440 it's a straight shot down to 410 on the weekly chart.

RUT Weekly Chart:



RUT Daily Chart:



RUT Monthly Chart:
The bottoming tail from December has yet to generate a strong reversal.

RUT: Reverses Intraday After Hitting New Low

The RUT put in a positive day after testing yesterday's low near 430, it closed at 456.76. When it lost 440 yesterday it created an even lower low. This continues to hint that the move to retest the prior 370 lows is ever present.

The RUT is now back in the 440 to 490 range, which will be important to watch. The price is now under the 8MA, 20MA, 50MA and 200MA -- bearish. More importantly, all of these MA's are pointing DOWN. The RUT may get a bounce here as a continuation of today's move, but keep your eyes on the 20MA as it's direction will likely be the light that illuminates the path.

RUT Daily Chart:

RUT: Head and Shoulders?

The RUT formed a LOWER LOW on the daily charts that is bearish no matter which way you slice it. The 440 first target of the broken rising wedge was hit in just 4 days.

The short term uptrend was broken, and in the context of an intermediate downtrend the next little rally is likely to form a lower high which will then create a Head and Shoulders pattern.

The possibility still exist for the market to fall straight down from here too, so all those options are on the table now. We'll just wait to see if 460 can hold tomorrow for starters. The upside target for an "Obama Rally" would be 490. The 440 area would be the first target to the downside.

We are now able to draw our neckline and downside targets IF the H&S Pattern plays out.

RUT Daily Chart:

RUT: Break of 460 Creates Lower Low

The rally has come to an end with today's close below 460. When this current down draft halts and it starts moving up again it will have formed a lower low on the daily charts and likely a lower high.

Next level of horizontal price support is at 440, so that would be the first target. There's also a 161.8 fib target at 425.97.

RUT Daily Chart: