The charts look great and bullish, but lets see what happens when some volume comes into the market next week.
Happy New Year!
RUT Daily Chart:
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
RUT: Light Volume Bulls Get It
The RUT moved up again today on light volume to give it a confirmed higher high on the daily charts, just like it did last December before everything fell apart.
The charts look great and bullish, but lets see what happens when some volume comes into the market next week.
Happy New Year!
RUT Daily Chart:
The charts look great and bullish, but lets see what happens when some volume comes into the market next week.
Happy New Year!
RUT Daily Chart:
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
RUT: Bulltard Afternoon
There's nothing like bad consumer confidence numbers to spark a rally and today was no different. The market shrugged off the dismal numbers, held 50% of the morning move and then took off like a rocket in the last hour to close at 482.77. This was on very light holiday volume.
I mention the light volume, because it was the light volume rally the day after Christmas last year that created the top at 800 right before the January collapse.
Rallies on low volume are suspect, so be careful.
Technically the price is holding above the 20MA and a strong green bar materialized closing above the weeks consolidation, so the charts are looking bullish. We'll have to wait and see if it can follow through.
RUT Daily Chart:
I mention the light volume, because it was the light volume rally the day after Christmas last year that created the top at 800 right before the January collapse.
Rallies on low volume are suspect, so be careful.
Technically the price is holding above the 20MA and a strong green bar materialized closing above the weeks consolidation, so the charts are looking bullish. We'll have to wait and see if it can follow through.
RUT Daily Chart:
Monday, December 29, 2008
RUT: Once a Trend Line is Broken...
The RUT put in a down-day to close 1 point above the 20MA on the daily chart.
The 8MA and the 20MA are just starting to rollover, so watch to see if there is follow through tomorrow.
At at glance the 20MA is moving sideways which gives me no guidance on direction. Lets break it down:
Bullish:
- Higher high on the daily charts
- Price is still above the 20MA
Bearish:
- Broke the uptrend line on the daily chart and has now spent 6 sessions below it.
- Starting to form a mini head and shoulders pattern on the daily
- 50MA and 200MA still pointing down
Keep in mind that the current geopolitical issues could move the markets very quickly in the coming days and weeks as oil prices get pushed around.
RUT Daily Chart:
The 8MA and the 20MA are just starting to rollover, so watch to see if there is follow through tomorrow.
At at glance the 20MA is moving sideways which gives me no guidance on direction. Lets break it down:
Bullish:
- Higher high on the daily charts
- Price is still above the 20MA
Bearish:
- Broke the uptrend line on the daily chart and has now spent 6 sessions below it.
- Starting to form a mini head and shoulders pattern on the daily
- 50MA and 200MA still pointing down
Keep in mind that the current geopolitical issues could move the markets very quickly in the coming days and weeks as oil prices get pushed around.
RUT Daily Chart:
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
RUT: Tiring
The RUT closed lower today, but is still holding the 20MA on the daily chart. This still has to been seen as mildly bullish since the higher highs and higher lows are still intact.
Yesterday I did point out that this is the third leg of the relief rally, and in the intermediate downtrend we find ourselves in, three may be all we get. A normal rally would be three to five legs so with the negative sentiment it will likely be three to five. We'll have to see.
Just from a pure visual glance at the charts I see the path of least resistance being 440 on the daily charts. Even if the RUT is going to move up higher it makes more sense to me that it will need to produce a bigger pull back in order to get some strength.
At present, 460 is the area that needs to hold to keep the bullish bias intact as that's the area of Monday's lows.
RUT Daily Chart:
Yesterday I did point out that this is the third leg of the relief rally, and in the intermediate downtrend we find ourselves in, three may be all we get. A normal rally would be three to five legs so with the negative sentiment it will likely be three to five. We'll have to see.
Just from a pure visual glance at the charts I see the path of least resistance being 440 on the daily charts. Even if the RUT is going to move up higher it makes more sense to me that it will need to produce a bigger pull back in order to get some strength.
At present, 460 is the area that needs to hold to keep the bullish bias intact as that's the area of Monday's lows.
RUT Daily Chart:
Monday, December 22, 2008
RUT: More Mixed Signals
The RUT continues to put in higher highs and higher lows on the daily charts AND it successfully retested and bounce hard off the 20MA today creating a bottoming tail. In a bullish market this would be great and I'd be pretty bullish, but there are bearish factors that take some of the stream out of this move...
1) Short term uptrend was broken and price is still below it
2) Today's bar closed below Friday's lows (Friday was a topping tail candle)
3) Resisting at 490
4) Today's selling down to 460 showed that there are sellers out there
5) This relief bounce has had 3 legs up so far and may be weakening
5) We are still in an intermediate bear market and path of least resistance is now down
With all that said my bias still cautiously bullish with today's close, but I also see 440 as a likely target if it falls apart tomorrow.
RUT Daily Chart:
1) Short term uptrend was broken and price is still below it
2) Today's bar closed below Friday's lows (Friday was a topping tail candle)
3) Resisting at 490
4) Today's selling down to 460 showed that there are sellers out there
5) This relief bounce has had 3 legs up so far and may be weakening
5) We are still in an intermediate bear market and path of least resistance is now down
With all that said my bias still cautiously bullish with today's close, but I also see 440 as a likely target if it falls apart tomorrow.
RUT Daily Chart:
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Tonight's Conference Call Canceled
Sorry for the late notice, but tonight's call is canceled due to a conflict with our granddaughters Christmas Play.
Our next conference call will be January 8th, 2009.
The charts at the time of this post are looking awfully bullish. Higher highs and higher lows continue on the daily chart.
Our next conference call will be January 8th, 2009.
The charts at the time of this post are looking awfully bullish. Higher highs and higher lows continue on the daily chart.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
RUT: Up Again
The FED's promise of FREE money got the RUT moving to the upside again.
Today's close at yesterday's upside 480 target helped to prop the price back over the green uptrend line again. This also kept the "higher low" intact. Today's close at 482.85 also guarantees a higher high (only by 1 point), but it is a higher high technically.
Tomorrow will be key to see if there is follow through. This may be the excuse they needed to go on a Santa Rally buying spree.
There is overhead resistance at 550 and 580. For the time being I expect the price to chop between the upward trend line and 550. A close below the trendline again will force me to reassess.
Tomorrows Uber Upside target: 512
Needs to hold (close above) at least 466 to keep bullish short term tone.
Be prepared for anything tomorrow. In many cases a bullish reaction to the Fed has crumbled to new lows just a few days after. There is no evidence of this yet, so we trade in the direction that the chart shows us, but we are prepared to switch direction at a moments notice if that's what the chart tells us.
I am still trading intraday only and am not ready to take any swing trades "Long" at this time. It's likely that I will use my patience and wait for the price to reach a strong resistance area like 550 or 580. At those points I would look for a reversal signal to enter some "Short" swing positions. I fell more comfortable trading in the direction of the intermediate trend in this type of volatility.
RUT Daily Chart:
Today's close at yesterday's upside 480 target helped to prop the price back over the green uptrend line again. This also kept the "higher low" intact. Today's close at 482.85 also guarantees a higher high (only by 1 point), but it is a higher high technically.
Tomorrow will be key to see if there is follow through. This may be the excuse they needed to go on a Santa Rally buying spree.
There is overhead resistance at 550 and 580. For the time being I expect the price to chop between the upward trend line and 550. A close below the trendline again will force me to reassess.
Tomorrows Uber Upside target: 512
Needs to hold (close above) at least 466 to keep bullish short term tone.
Be prepared for anything tomorrow. In many cases a bullish reaction to the Fed has crumbled to new lows just a few days after. There is no evidence of this yet, so we trade in the direction that the chart shows us, but we are prepared to switch direction at a moments notice if that's what the chart tells us.
I am still trading intraday only and am not ready to take any swing trades "Long" at this time. It's likely that I will use my patience and wait for the price to reach a strong resistance area like 550 or 580. At those points I would look for a reversal signal to enter some "Short" swing positions. I fell more comfortable trading in the direction of the intermediate trend in this type of volatility.
RUT Daily Chart:
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